Prelims: Current events of international importance, west Asia, saudi-Iran conflict, JCOP, IAEA etc
Mains GS Paper II: Bilateral, regional and global grouping and agreements involving India or affecting India’s interests.
ARTICLE HIGHLIGHTS
- Foreign Minister of Oman said that Iran and the United States were finalizing a deal on the release of American prisoners in Iran.
- The two countries are about to reach a fresh deal on the nuclear issue.
INSIGHTS ON THE ISSUE
Context
What was the 2015 Iran nuclear deal(Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)?
- Negotiations between Iran and P5+1: It was the result of prolonged negotiations between Iran and P5+1 (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States + Germany).
- Components for nuclear weapons: Iran agreed to significantly cut its stores of centrifuges, enriched uranium and heavy-water, all key components for nuclear weapons.
- IAEA inspection: Iran also agreed to implement a protocol that would allow inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to access its nuclear sites.
What does the nuclear arrangement entail?
- The ruler of Oman visited Tehran carrying a message from the U.S. on a new agreement on the nuclear issue for Iran’s Supreme Leader.
- This was in line with the earlier role played by Oman in the run-up to the nuclear agreement in 2015.
- The proposed agreement will be informal and unwritten.
- Israel’s Prime Minister has called it a “mini-agreement”, while Iranian officials see it as a “political ceasefire”.
What is the agreement?
- Iran will freeze its nuclear enrichment at 60%.
- It will not attack U.S. military contractors in Syria and Iraq
- It will improve cooperation with the IAEA’s inspectors
- It will not provide ballistic missiles to Russia.
- Iran will release the three U.S. citizens in its custody.
- In return, the U.S. has pledged to:
- Avoid new harsh sanctions on Iran
- Not to seize oil tankers in the Gulf waters
- Not pursue anti-Iran resolutions in the United Nations.
- The U.S. is expected to defreeze Iran’s bank accounts of about $80 billion in various banks outside the country.
- The US will immediately allow the release of $7 billion in South Korea and $2.7 billion in Iraq.
How will it serve the US’s interests?
- It is an unwritten agreement: The Joe Biden administration will not have to seek Congressional approval.
- It does not call for easing of existing U.S. sanctions; the Republicans will find it difficult to attack the deal in the forthcoming presidential campaign.
- The proposed arrangement focuses on widespread concerns relating to Iran’s uranium enrichment programme.
- It has reached 84% and its stockpile of thousands of installed centrifuges.
- Iran’s progress towards a weapon had led to real concerns about a region-wide conflagration.
- Israel, with or without the Americans, was expected to take pre-emptive military action.
- The deal with Iran could end Saudi Arabia’s own nuclear aspirations.
Way Forward
- Israel will not be bound by this arrangement:This could be posturing with their anti-democratic initiatives.
- Both the Prime Minister and his government have reduced clout in Washington and are unlikely to garner backing to overturn the deal.
- Iran is entering into the arrangement with no illusion that it will have a long-term value.
- It will help to release billions of dollars that Iran could use to ameliorate the dire living conditions of millions of its citizens.
- It will also enable it to continue selling some of its oil in world markets
- The arrangement will facilitate further improvement in Iran’s ties with Saudi Arabia, with the prospect of the kingdom’s normalization of relations with Israel being placed firmly on the back burner.
- Iran retains the option of continuing to expand its political and economic ties with Russia and China.
- If the “good faith” arrangement holds through this administration, it could prepare the ground for serious U.S.-Iran engagement on other matters of common concern
QUESTION FOR PRACTICE
How will I2U2 (India, Israel, UAE and USA) grouping transform India’s Position in global politics?(UPSC 2022) (200 WORDS, 10 MARKS)
