Topic: Conservation, environmental pollution and degradation, environmental impact assessment
Q6. Why is the overshoot of the 1.5°C global warming threshold becoming increasingly inevitable? Analyse its consequences for natural ecosystems and human societies. Suggest measures to limit the magnitude and duration of the overshoot. (15 M)
Difficulty Level: Medium
Reference: IE
Why the question
UNEP’s warning that a temporary breach of the 1.5°C warming threshold is becoming increasingly unavoidable. It tests understanding of climate overshoot and the need to recalibrate global climate action.
Key Demand of the question
Explain the factors making a 1.5°C overshoot increasingly inevitable, assess its effects on ecosystems and human societies, and suggest measures to restrict both the scale and duration of the overshoot.
Structure of the Answer:
Introduction
Define climate overshoot and briefly distinguish a temporary rise above 1.5°C from the breach of the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal.
Body
- Reasons for the growing inevitability: Indicate how accumulated emissions, shrinking carbon budgets, inadequate climate commitments and fossil-fuel dependence are pushing the world towards overshoot.
- Consequences of overshoot: Cover irreversible ecological changes alongside impacts on water, food, health, livelihoods and climate-vulnerable communities across the world.
- Measures to limit magnitude and duration: Suggest stronger emission reductions, control of short-lived climate pollutants, protection of carbon sinks, responsible carbon removal and adaptation finance.
Conclusion
Conclude that overshoot must not encourage climate fatalism, since every fraction of avoided warming and every year by which the breach is shortened can reduce irreversible losses.
