India’s progress on its climate targets

Source: TH

Subject: Environment

Context: Recent analyses and commentaries have reviewed India’s performance on its Paris climate commitments, noting that while emissions intensity reduction and renewable capacity targets are largely on track, absolute emissions and coal dependence remain key concerns for the coming decade.

About India’s progress on its climate targets:

What it is?

• India’s climate targets arise from its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the UNFCCC, guided by the principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibilities (CBDR). These targets aim to balance development needs with climate mitigation and adaptation.

India’s key climate targets

• Emissions intensity reduction: Reduce emissions intensity of GDP by 33–35% by 2030 from the 2005 level (updated to 45% by 2030 in the 2022 NDC).
• Non-fossil power capacity: Achieve 40% (now 50%) of installed power capacity from non-fossil sources by 2030.
• Renewable energy expansion: Initially 175 GW by 2022, later scaled to 500 GW by 2030.
• Forest carbon sink: Create an additional 2.5–3 billion tonnes of CO₂-equivalent carbon sink through forests and tree cover by 2030.
• Long-term goal: Achieve net-zero emissions by 2070.

Current status of targets:

• Emissions intensity: India has reduced emissions intensity by ~36% by 2020, achieving the original Paris target a decade early. However, absolute GHG emissions remain high (around 3 GtCO₂e), reflecting only partial decoupling of growth from emissions.
• Power sector transition: Non-fossil capacity crossed 50% of installed capacity by mid-2025, driven mainly by solar and wind. Yet, renewables contribute only ~22% of actual electricity generation, as coal continues to provide over 70% of baseload power.
• Renewable energy capacity: Solar capacity expanded rapidly (from ~3 GW in 2014 to over 110 GW by 2025), while wind growth has been slower. The 175 GW (2022) target was missed, though the 500 GW (2030) goal remains technically feasible.
• Forest and carbon sink target: Official estimates suggest India is close to meeting the forest sink target, but much of this relies on plantations and broad forest-cover definitions, raising concerns about ecological quality and permanence.

Roadblocks to achieving climate targets:

• Absolute emissions challenge: Despite achieving a 33% reduction in emissions intensity by 2023, India’s absolute emissions rose to ~3.35 Gt CO₂e in 2024, driven by rising electricity demand. Rapid GDP growth allows intensity to fall even as total emissions increase, shrinking the national carbon budget.
• Coal-based baseload power lock-in: Coal remains central to energy security, with ~219 GW installed capacity contributing over 65% of electricity output. Planned addition of ~80 GW of coal capacity by 2031–32 risks long-term carbon lock-ins, delaying structural decarbonisation.
• Storage and grid constraints: High renewable capacity is undermined by weak storage and transmission. While solar crossed 110 GW, operational BESS remains under 0.3 GWh against multi-gigawatt needs, and a 42% shortfall in transmission commissioning (FY25) limits renewable evacuation.
• Implementation and forest governance gaps: CAMPA fund utilisation remains poor, with states spending only a fraction of released funds. Afforestation is often plantation-centric, neglecting natural regeneration, making forest carbon sinks ecologically fragile under drought and fire stress.

Way ahead: Strategic pillars

• Scaling energy storage and grid modernisation: Fast-track the National Electricity Transmission Plan to integrate 500 GW of non-fossil capacity.
  • Achieving 74 GW of BESS and 50 GW of pumped hydro by 2032, supported by VGF for storage, is critical to convert capacity into reliable generation.
• Transparent coal transition roadmap: Accelerate retirement of old and inefficient thermal plants, building on the 4.6 GW decommissioned by 2025.
  • Repurposing abandoned coal mines for solar and pumped storage can enable a just transition for coal-dependent regions.
• Industrial decarbonisation through green hydrogen: Leverage the National Green Hydrogen Mission (₹19,744 crore) to decarbonise steel, fertilisers, and refining.
  • The 5 MMT annual hydrogen target by 2030, backed by the SIGHT incentives, can structurally cut hard-to-abate emissions.
• Reforming forest and carbon policy: Operationalise the Indian Carbon Market (2025) with binding sectoral targets to drive cost-effective mitigation.
  • Shift CAMPA focus from plantations to Assisted Natural Regeneration and biodiversity-rich forests for resilient, long-term carbon sinks.

Conclusion:

India has largely delivered on its headline climate commitments, especially emissions intensity reduction and non-fossil capacity expansion. However, rising absolute emissions, coal reliance, and weak storage and forest governance dilute real climate impact. The next five years are critical to convert targets on paper into durable emissions moderation and ecological resilience.