Global Methane Status Report 2025

Source: UNEP

Subject: Environment

Context: The 2025 Global Methane Status Report, released by UNEP, serves as a mid-term evaluation of the Global Methane Pledge, revealing that while projected emissions growth has slowed, current commitments will fail to meet the 2030 target.

About Global Methane Status Report 2025:

Key Summary of the Report:

1. Revised Baseline: The Current Legislation Emissions (CLE) scenario projects 2030 emissions at 369 Mt, which is 14 Mt (4%) lower than the 2021 pre-Pledge baseline, due to slower gas market growth and new waste regulations in Europe and North America.
2. Ambition Gap: Full implementation of current NDCs and Methane Action Plans (MAPs) would reduce emissions by only 8% below 2020 levels by 2030, far short of the GMP’s 30% target.
3. Technically Feasible Pathway: Implementing all Maximum Technically Feasible Reductions (MTFR) could cut emissions by 32% by 2030 (131 Mt), avoiding 0.2°C of warming by 2050 and over 180,000 premature deaths annually by 2030.
4. Cost-Effectiveness: Over 80% (109 Mt/yr) of the MTFR potential is available at a low cost ($</t CH₄), with the waste sector offering net savings of $9 billion annually through vaporized biogas.
5. Sectoral Potential: The energy sector holds 72% of the 2030 technical mitigation potential, followed by agriculture (18%) and waste (10%).
6. Geographical Focus: The G20+ group (which includes the EU-24, Norway, Switzerland, Iceland, and New Zealand) is responsible for 65% of emissions and 72% of the global mitigation potential.
7. Policy Progress: 127 countries (65% of Paris Agreement parties) now include methane measures in NDCs, a 38% increase from pre-2020, but only six countries (Canada, Japan, Moldova, Norway, USA, Vietnam) have national targets directly comparable to the GMP.

Major Sources of Methane Emission:

• Agriculture (42%, 146 Mt): Dominated by enteric fermentation from livestock (76% of agricultural emissions) and rice cultivation (21%).
• Energy (38%, 135 Mt): Comprises oil and gas production (64 Mt from upstream, 17 Mt from downstream) and coal mining (43 Mt).
• Waste (20%, 71 Mt): Primarily from municipal solid waste in landfills (37 Mt) and wastewater (30 Mt from domestic and industrial).

Implications Across the Globe:

1. Health & Productivity: The CLE scenario would cause 24,000 additional premature deaths, 2.5 Mt of crop losses (maize, rice, soy, wheat), and 6.9 million lost labour hours annually by 2030 due to ground-level ozone.
2. Regional Disparities: Emissions in non-G20+ regions (Africa, Latin America, parts of Asia) are projected to rise 16% by 2030 and 53% by 2050, driven by population growth, expanding livestock, and improved waste collection without concurrent mitigation.
3. Data Integrity Crisis: Persistent underreporting, especially in the fossil fuel sector, compromises policy effectiveness. Studies in Mexico and Australia show measured emissions can be double the official inventory estimates.
4. Locked-in Emissions: Methane from waste decomposes over decades. Without pre-2030 investment in landfill gas capture and organic waste diversion, significant mitigation potential for 2040-2050 will be lost.
5. Financial Mismatch: Tracked methane finance averages $13.7  billion/year, but the net annual cost to implement MTFR by 2030 is $127 billion—a massive investment gap.

Recommendations:

1. Adopt Measurement-Based Regulations: Scale the use of direct measurement tools (like satellites, airborne surveys) for robust MRV, following models like the EU Methane Regulation and OGMP 2.0 framework.
2. Implement Sector-Specific “No-Regret” Policies:
   • Energy: Mandate frequent LDAR (Leak Detection and Repair) and ban non-emergency venting.
   • Waste: Enforce source separation of organic waste and mandate landfill gas capture.
   • Agriculture: Enforce bans on agricultural waste burning and promote intermittent aeration for rice paddies.
3. Overcome Financial Barriers: Deploy concessional finance and risk-sharing instruments to support mitigation in developing economies and for National Oil Companies (NOCs). Repurposing a fraction of the > $635 billion in annual harmful agricultural subsidies could close the finance gap.
4. Strengthen National Targets: Countries must translate GMP participation into quantified, time-bound national methane reduction targets within their NDCs, moving beyond vague measures.
5. Integrate with Decarbonization: Combine targeted methane controls with deep energy decarbonization and demand-side measures (e.g., sustainable diets) to achieve a 53% reduction by 2050, aligning with 1.5°C pathways.

Conclusion:

The report confirms the GMP target is technically achievable with existing, low-cost solutions. The primary barrier is no longer technology or cost, but the pace of policy implementation and financial mobilization. The next five years are critical to deploy measures that will deliver immediate climate stabilization and clean air benefits, making methane action the most impactful short-term climate strategy available.