WMO Global Climate Forecast 2025–2029

Syllabus: Climate Change

Source:  WMO

Context: The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has released a new decadal climate forecast, warning that global temperatures between 2025 and 2029 are expected to remain at or above record levels, significantly increasing climate-related risks and development challenges.

About WMO Global Climate Forecast 2025–2029:

• Temperature Range: Annual global mean surface temperature is projected to be 1.2°C to 1.9°C above pre-industrial (1850–1900) levels.
• Record-Breaking Heat:
  • 80% chance that one year between 2025–2029 will exceed 2024, the hottest year on record.
  • 86% chance that one year will cross the 1.5°C threshold.
• Five-Year Average Warming:
  • 70% probability that 2025–2029 average will exceed 1.5°C, up from 47% in last year’s report.
• Long-Term Context: 1.5°C target in Paris Agreement refers to multi-decade averages, but short-term overshoots are now increasingly likely.

Key Issues Highlighted in the Report:

• Accelerated Arctic Warming: Winter temperatures in the Arctic are expected to be 2.4°C above the 1991–2020 average, over 3.5× faster than global average.
• Decline in Sea Ice: Further reductions predicted in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea, and Sea of Okhotsk, impacting biodiversity and indigenous livelihoods.
• Changing Precipitation Patterns:
  • Wetter conditions expected in Sahel, Alaska, Northern Europe.
  • Drier conditions over the Amazon and parts of South Asia, intensifying drought risks.
• Regional Variability: South Asia may witness continued wet years, though not uniformly across seasons.

Consequences of Predicted Warming:

• Extreme Weather Intensification: Every fraction of warming drives stronger heatwaves, floods, and droughts, impacting both urban systems and agrarian economies.
• Melting Ice and Rising Seas: Sustained warming leads to glacial melt, contributing to sea-level rise and coastal threats.
• Ocean Heating & Acidification: Increased temperatures cause marine ecosystem degradation, endangering fisheries and food chains.
• Threat to Sustainable Development: Warming undermines SDGs, especially food security, water access, and public health in vulnerable regions.

Way Ahead:

• Strengthen Climate Action (NDCs): Nations must revise and scale up their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) at COP30 for alignment with Paris targets.
• Accelerate Renewable Transitions: Shift to clean energy and net-zero pathways is vital to reduce GHG emissions.
• Boost Adaptation Planning: Implement climate-resilient infrastructure and early warning systems in high-risk zones.
• Enhance Global Climate Monitoring: Expand WMO-led efforts for decadal forecasting, regional risk assessments, and public policy guidance.
• Protect Natural Carbon Sinks: Preserve forests, wetlands, and oceans which act as critical buffers against rising CO₂ levels.

Conclusion:

The WMO’s forecast reinforces the urgency of aggressive climate action. The likelihood of surpassing 1.5°C even temporarily signifies increasing systemic risks. Without immediate global commitment, climate extremes will become the new normal.

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