Explain the key atmospheric and oceanic conditions required for the onset of southwest monsoon? Analyse the role of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in modulating the monsoon. How is the onset process being affected by changing climate patterns?

Topic: Salient features of world’s physical geography.

Q1. Explain the key atmospheric and oceanic conditions required for the onset of southwest monsoon? Analyse the role of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in modulating the monsoon. How is the onset process being affected by changing climate patterns? (15 M)

Difficulty Level: Medium

Reference: TH

Why the question
The southwest monsoon’s early movement in 2025 and changing climate signals have made understanding its onset mechanisms and variability a key concern for geography and disaster preparedness.

Key Demand of the question
The question asks for an explanation of the atmospheric and oceanic triggers for monsoon onset, the specific role of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and how climate change is affecting the onset process.

Structure of the Answer:

Introduction
Mention the monsoon’s climatic importance and how its onset is governed by large-scale atmospheric-oceanic interactions.

Body

  • Explain key atmospheric conditions like jet stream shifts, cross-equatorial flow, and pressure patterns
  • Describe oceanic triggers including SST, pressure gradients, and MJO
  • Analyse how IOD phases influence monsoon variability and intensity
  • Examine how climate change is altering onset patterns, increasing lightning/extremes, and making forecasts uncertain

Conclusion
Suggest predictive adaptation through improved modelling and climate-resilient agricultural planning.