GS2/GS1 Paper
Syllabus: International Relations/ World History
Context: Iran recently launched a series of air strikes on Israel, employing 200-300 drones and ballistic missiles. The attacks, executed by Iran’s para-military force, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, were in response to Israeli war jets targeting an Iranian consulate in Syria. Iran dubbed the attack “Operation True Promise”.
The attack signals a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, moving beyond previous skirmishes involving Israel and Hamas.
Events that led to the Attack:
| Event | Date | Description |
| US Withdrawal from Iran’s Nuclear Deal | 2018 | Israel praises the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, which it had lobbied against, viewing it as a historic move by President Trump. |
| Assassination of Iran’s Army General | 2020 | Israel welcomes the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani by a US drone strike in Baghdad, prompting retaliatory missile attacks by Iran on American bases in Iraq. |
| Hamas Attack on Isreal | October 2023 | Hamas, supported by Iran, launched a missile and land attack on Israel, leading to Israeli airstrikes on Gaza in response. |
| Israel Raids | November 2023 | Israel conducts raids on medical facilities in Gaza, citing Hamas’s presence, and using them for warfare. |
| Houthi Group’s Red Sea Incident | November 2023 | The Iran-backed Houthi group’s landing on a cargo vessel in the Red Sea initiates the ‘Red Sea Crisis,’ contributing to regional tensions and supply chain issues. |
| Escalation of Israel’s Ground Offenses | December 2023 | Israel intensifies ground offensives in Gaza, resulting in a rise in casualties and refugees, prompting international calls for a peaceful resolution. |
| Airstrike on the Iranian Embassy | April 2024 | Suspected Israeli airstrike on the Iranian embassy in Damascus results in casualties, heightening tensions further. |
| Iran’s Missile Attack on Israel | April 2024 | Iran launches a missile attack on Israel, allegedly in response to an Israeli strike on Iran’s consulate in Syria, marking the first direct attack on Israel from Iranian territory. |
| Isreal strikes back | April 2024 | Isreal attacked Iran’s airforce base (however, denied by Iran) |
Iran and Israel’s Conflict:
Iran and Israel have a long-standing history of enmity, largely stemming from ideological and geopolitical differences.
| Period | Key Events |
| Pre-1979 Iran-Israel Ties | Iran recognized Israel after its formation in 1948. Despite the Arab-Israeli conflict, Iran established diplomatic ties with Israel. |
| During Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi’s rule from 1941 to 1979, Iran pursued a pro-Western foreign policy. Despite economic boycotts from Arab states, Iran maintained diplomatic ties with Israel and even sold oil to Israel. | |
| Israel, under Prime Minister David Ben Gurion, adopted the “periphery doctrine,” forming alliances with non-Arab, mainly Muslim, countries like Turkey and pre-revolution Iran to counter Arab hostility. | |
| The 1979 Revolution | Iran’s Islamic Revolution led to a shift in view towards Israel as an occupier of Palestinian land. Ayatollah Khomeini labeled Israel as “Little Satan.” |
| Post-1979 Shadow War | Both countries engaged in indirect conflicts through proxies and limited strategic attacks. Israel targeted Iranian nuclear facilities through a computer Virus (Stuxnet). Iran supported anti-Israel militant groups like Hezbollah and Hamas. |
Fig: Iran’s Proxy groups
Impact of Middle-East Escalation:
| Impact | Description |
| Increasing Regional Escalation | Heightened tensions could lead to military action, escalating the conflict regionally. Other countries such as Syria, Lebanon and Saudi Arabia could be drawn into a broader conflict. |
| Israel is believed to be nuclear-capable therefore conflict can lead to a nuclear flashpoint | |
| Potential to Disrupt Oil Supplies | Escalation could disrupt crude oil supplies, impacting global oil prices and economies heavily reliant on oil imports. |
| With Iran being a key producer of crude oil within OPEC, volatility in oil prices may increase due to disruptions in shipping routes and geopolitical tensions. | |
| Spike in Inflation and Capital Outflow | Increased geopolitical tensions may lead to commodity price hikes and capital outflows, affecting global markets. |
| Trade and Travel Disruptions | Recent events include Iran seizing an Israel-linked ship near the Strait of Hormuz and Houthis hijacking a commercial ship in the Red Sea. These incidents affect global trade routes. |
India faces challenges balancing relationships with Iran and Israel, aiming to maintain stability in the region.
| Aspect | Israel’s Importance for India | Iran’s Importance for India |
| Economic and Commerce | India is Israel’s third-largest trade partner in Asia. Bilateral merchandise trade has grown significantly. | Iran has been a major supplier of crude oil to India, contributing significantly to India’s energy security. |
| Defence | India imports critical defence technologies from Israel. Nearly 41% of Israel’s defence exports go to India. | Both countries share geopolitical concerns, especially regarding terrorism and stability in the region. |
| Energy | India has exploration licenses for natural gas extraction from Israel’s gas fields, diversifying the relationship. | US sanctions on Iran have impacted India’s oil imports, highlighting Iran’s importance for India’s energy needs. |
| Science & Technology | India-Israel Industrial R&D Fund promotes joint projects. | Strategic collaboration on space projects, including satellite launches, strengthens bilateral ties. |
| Strategic Location | Isreal connects the Red Sea to the Mediterranean Sea through land | Iran’s strategic location (including Chabahar Port) enhances India’s connectivity and economic interests in the region. |
India’s Position:
India calls for immediate de-escalation and a return to diplomacy to resolve conflicts. India’s position is on the ‘Two-State Solution’ of the Israel-Palestine conflict.
What should India do?
India must carefully balance engagements with key regional actors in the Middle East, considering their diverse interests and orientations. India should prioritize non-ideological engagements in the region to support its expanding interests in the Middle East.
What Should be done to de-escalate the situation?
- UN Reaction: The UN urges Iran and Israel to show restraint amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. The Secretary-General warned against further escalation and mutual accusations, emphasizing the need for peace.
- Sustainable Ceasefire and Two-State Solution: Israel should accept a ceasefire in Gaza, open borders for humanitarian aid, and work towards a two-state solution for long-term peace.
- Dialogue and Diplomacy: International mediation and direct talks facilitated by neutral parties could build trust and find common ground between Iran and Israel.
- Addressing Nuclear Proliferation Concerns: Iran should adhere to the JCPOA and allow international inspections, while Israel could recognize Iran’s right to peaceful nuclear energy.
- Regional Cooperation: Promoting cooperation within regional organizations could address security concerns and foster stability.
- Long-Term Vision for the Middle East: Establishing a comprehensive security architecture and addressing underlying issues can contribute to peace and reconciliation.
- Normalization of Relations: Steps towards diplomatic normalization, such as exchanging ambassadors and reopening embassies, could promote peace, as seen in recent agreements between Israel and some Arab states.
Insta Link:
Gaza conflict: India-Israel Relations
Prelims Link:
The term “two-state solution” is sometimes mentioned in the news in the context of the affairs of (UPSC 2018)
(a) China
(b) Israel
(c) Iraq
(d) Yemen
Ans: B
