- Prelims: Current events of international importance, referendum, UNGA, ICJ etc
- Mains GS Paper II: Important international institutions, agencies and their functions etc, Significance of Russia for India, International organizations, India-Russia relations.etc
ARTICLE HIGHLIGHTS
- Year 2023 witnessed a continuation of the poly crisis:
- COVID-19 pandemic
- Global economic slowdown
- Russia-Ukraine war
- Sharpening climate challenges
- Escalating debt burden for developing countries
- Israel-Hamas conflict.
INSIGHTS ON THE ISSUE
Context
Kinetic conflicts:
- Ukraine
- Gaza
Israel’s goals:
- Release of Israeli hostages
- Destruction of Hamas
- Effective deterrence by ensuring that Gaza no longer posed a threat to Israel.
Challenges:
- The two-state solution has little chance of taking off due to an unbridgeable gap between the two sides
- The enormous anger and anguish created by the recent hostilities.
- Russian Foreign Minister: Without a political horizon, Israelis and Palestinians will continue living from escalation to escalation,
Impact of war:
- Growing regionalisation of the conflict through attacks on merchant ships by the Yemen-based Houthi militia
- probably with Iranian support, complicated the situation.
- Violence at sea and the rise in prices of goods traded between Europe and Asia.
Russia-Ukraine war:
- The future of the Russia-Ukraine war is more difficult to decipher
- The conflict is not only between two nations but also two conflicting systems
- The western security system represented by NATO and Russia.
- War fatigue has set in.
- The United States is finding it difficult to keep pouring money into a war that Ukraine has little hope of winning.
- The decline in material and financial assistance will erode Ukraine’s ability to continue the war.
- Ian Bremmer(president of Eurasia Group): Ukraine can prevent further Russian advances through 2024, much less recover lost ground.”
Impact on Russia:
- It has shown a remarkable tenacity to withstand the combined opposition of the West
- Biting economic sanctions
- Near-universal condemnation by the United Nations
- Internal upheaval.
Possible flash points of new war:
- Taiwan
- North Korea
- The South China Sea
- especially the sharpening feud between China and the Philippines
- India-China border.
India’s gains in 2023:
● The management of relations with the major powers has been marked with self-confidence and maturity.
● U.S.-India relations witnessed important strides.
○ Political convergence
○ Enhancing defense cooperation
○ Expanding contours of the U.S.-India initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET).
● Cooperation with the European Union (EU) and bilateral relations with its key member-states are certain to advance positively.
○ The French President’s visit as the chief guest at the Republic Day celebrations
○ It will further deepen collaboration with a vital strategic partner.
● Focus on special relations forged with Japan and Australia and further consolidation of the Quad.
● Russia:The tangible outcomes of the External Affairs Minister’s recent visit to Russia indicate that this ‘time-tested’ relationship remains stable and resilient, strong and steady.
○ A Modi-Putin summit is a near certainty in 2024.
● Handling of the G-20 presidency, culminating in the adoption of the New Delhi Leaders’ Declaration with “100% consensus”.
○ Success in implementing the summit decisions is now largely dependent on the next two presidencies, Brazil and South Africa.
Way Forward
- South Asia, once India’s backyard, is now a space where the Chinese footprint continues to expand, as shown by recent developments in the Maldives, Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Bhutan.
- China’s ‘intrusion’ is fuelled by its economic largesse and strategic vision that aims to keep India tied down to its neighborhood.
- An effective counter-strategy needs to be devised.
- Indian diplomacy will grapple with both old and novel issues
- climate change
- negotiations for various free trade agreements
- promote India’s expertise in digital technology
- readiness to accord a place of priority to Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the nation’s economic development.
- Multilateral groupings such as G-20, BRICS, the SCO, the Indian Ocean Rim Association, and the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation, and the need to push United Nations Security Council reform will demand serious attention.
- The Ministry of External Affairs will have to project to the world the forthcoming parliamentary elections as a major milestone in the development of the world’s largest functioning democracy.
QUESTION FOR PRACTICE
What is the significance of Indo-US deals over Indo-Russian defense deals? Discuss with reference to stability in the Indo-Pacific region (UPSC 2020) (200 WORDS, 10 MARKS)
