EDITORIAL ANALYSIS : A ‘middle kingdom’ dawns on India’s west

Source: The Hindu

Prelims: Current events of international importance, west Asia, saudi-Iran conflict, Arab League, OPEC, OPEC+, G20 etc

Mains GS Paper II: Bilateral, regional and global grouping and agreements involving India or affecting India’s interests.

ARTICLE HIGHLIGHTS

The 32nd Arab League Summit was held in Jeddah.
- All 22 Arab states got together again, with 17 of them represented at the head of state or government level.

INSIGHTS ON THE ISSUE

Context

Arab League:

It is also called the League of Arab States (LAS).
It is an intergovernmental pan-Arab organization of all Arab states in the Middle East and North Africa.
It was formed in Cairo, Egypt on 22nd March 1945, following the adoption of the Alexandria Protocol in 1944.

Members:

22 Arab countries:

Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.

Objective:

It aims to strengthen and coordinate the political, cultural, economic, and social programs of its members and to mediate disputes among them or between them and third parties.
The signing on 13th April 1950, of an agreement on joint defense and economic cooperation also committed the signatories to coordination of military defense measures.

32nd Arab League Summit:

The summit readmitted Syria and heard the Ukrainian President, a special invitee.
Jeddah Declaration: It was moderate in political optics and showed realism for the contemporary socio-economic challenges facing the Arabs.
Although it highlighted the staple pro-Palestinian agenda, it conspicuously refrained from mentioning Israel by name.
All Iran-related issues were omitted.
It called for “stopping foreign interference in the domestic affairs of Arab countries.
It rejected all support for the formation of armed groups and militias”.
There was no mention of any non-Arab issue, including Ukraine and the oil market.

The Saudi angle

The emergence of Saudi Arabia under the Crown Prince as the main arbiter of the Arab world’s agenda for the foreseeable future.
The Crown Prince held triple summits in Riyadh with the Chinese President.
Relations with Iran were normalized, aiming to end nearly 45 years of hostility and geo-religious rivalry.
- This reduced the friction among their respective proxies in conflict such as Yemen, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq.
- It has raised hopes of putting an end to the civil war in Yemen, the Kingdom’s “Vietnam” since 2015.
Ties with the United States have been stabilized.
Egypt, the usual pretender for Arab leadership, is in a precarious economic state as the Kingdom has curtailed its assistance, demanding greater financial accountability.
Syria and Iraq are still battling their internal demons and Iranian interference.

Advantages for Saudi Arabia:

It has chalked out a middle path to take the Arab world’s leadership, currently in a vacuum.
By reconciling with Iran through Chinese mediation, but without a U.S. nod-and-wink, Riyadh has asserted its diplomatic autonomy.
The move undermined US’s attempts to demonize Iran and its nuclear programme.
- It puts into question the rationale of its economic sanctions regime.
Direct ties with Iran have also reduced the importance of Qatar, Iraq, Oman and Pakistan as intermediaries.
By re-engaging Hamas ruling Gaza, the Kingdom has sought to replace Qatar and Iran as the main benefactors.
It will help deradicalise the Palestinians.
The Kingdom’s instinctive animosity with Israel has been replaced by ambiguity as Riyadh is in no hurry to join the Abraham Accords.
Jeddah has become the venue for peace talks among warring factions in Sudan.

Saudi Arabia’s economic advantage:

In 2022, its GDP grew by 7(eight point seven)%, more than twice as large as the second-placed United Arab Emirates (UAE).
Oil income: It is world’s largest oil exporter, Saudi oil income grew by 51%
- Sway over both the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and OPEC+, much to the West’s chagrin.
With the global oil market facing high volatility, only Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil company, has adequate spare capacity.
As the global economic turmoil raises the costs of post-crisis regional reconstruction, Riyadh is emerging as the first go-to destination.

Challenges for kingdom:

The Kingdom’s foreign policy has been through several lurches since the Jamal Khashoggi episode in 2018.
- Greater maturity and consistency would be needed to make it more effective.
The various initiatives towards regional reconciliation have not yet become irreversible and could still unravel.
The Kingdom’s ties with the UAE and Qatar are friction-prone and could exacerbate.
While Saudi Arabia is internally stable, the likely anointment of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman as the next Saudi king could be a disruptive and distractive development.

Way Forward

India has well-known high stakes in the Arab world, particularly in the neighboring West Asian region.
- India needs to acknowledge the importance of this incipient geo-political shift
- watch the developments very carefully, realign our strategy accordingly and vigorously pursue our national interests.
Although India enjoys cordial and substantive ties with Saudi Arabia, these are still below the potential and need periodic upgradation.
- India could consider several bilateral initiatives.
The Crown Prince should be re-invited for the India visit postponed last year.
- His likely presence at the forthcoming G-20 Summit in New Delhi can be leveraged bilaterally for this purpose.
India should synergise the bilateral Strategic Partnership Council at various levels:
- Leverage the potential for energy complementarity
- Work together more effectively to secure the region
- Enter a bilateral Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement
- Suggest India-Saudi partnership for building socio-economic infrastructure, both bilaterally and regionally
- Raise our participation in various projects under the Kingdom’s ambitious “Vision 2030”.