GS Paper 3
Syllabus: Indian economy, agriculture and related issues
Source: IE
Context: Both agricultural exports from and imports into India have scaled new highs in the fiscal year that ended March 31, 2023.
Provisional data of Department of Commerce on agri imports-exports:
- Agricultural trade surplus (Exports – Imports): It has marginally dipped from $17.82 billion to $17.46 billion.
- The surplus narrows further if one adds the import of fertilizers, which have risen from $14.17 billion in 2021-22 to $17.21 billion in 2022-23.
The drivers – global prices:
- The UN FAO’s Food Price Index (FPI) – a weighted average of world prices of a basket of food commodities over a base period value (2014-16 = 100) – remains high since 2020-21.
- It made India’s agri-commodities more globally price competitive.
Major export-import contributors:
Export profile:
- Basmati exports are mainly to the Persian Gulf countries, while non-basmati shipments are more diversified, spreading across –
- Asia (Bangladesh, China, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, Vietnam, UAE and Iraq) and
- Africa (from Senegal, Ivory Coast and Benin to Somalia and Madagascar).
- It’s non-basmati that has made India the biggest rice exporter, ahead of Thailand.
- In sugar exports, the country has emerged as the world’s No. 2 exporter after Brazil.
- Indian mills have built markets for both raw sugar (among refineries in Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia and Iraq) and
- Regular plantation whites (in African countries, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka and China).
- Spices exports have stagnated since 2020-21.
- The exports of raw cotton, guar-gum (a thickening agent used in extraction of shale oil and gas) and oil meals, have declined.
Imports profile:
- Imports meet roughly 60% of India’s vegetable oil requirements, 10% of pulses.
- Imports of spices, cashew and cotton – commodities where India has traditionally been a net exporter – have shown a rising trend.
Concerns:
- Unfavourable regulatory regime:
- Cultivation of GM Bt cotton and high global prices had enabled India to become the world’s top producer (ahead of China) and No. 2 exporter (after the US) of natural fibre.
- But, as the government is not permitting new gene technologies, the country has turned from a net exporter to an importer of cotton.
- Domestic crop shortages: Specially in cotton, soyabean, guar-gum and oil meal.
- Spice imports going up are a reflection of reduced price competitiveness (vis-à-vis Vietnam in pepper and Guatemala in pepper).
- Export curbs: The government banned wheat exports, broken rice exports and slapped a 20% duty on all non-parboiled non-basmati shipments.
Government steps to promote agricultural exports:
- Agriculture Export Policy (2018): It aims to harness export potential of Indian agriculture to make India a global power in agriculture and raise farmers’ income.
- ‘District as Export Hub’ Initiative of the Department of Commerce would be utilised to achieve the objectives of Agriculture Export Policy.
- Transport and Marketing Assistance for Specified Agriculture Products – a Central Sector Scheme to mitigate the freight disadvantage for the export of agriculture products.
- Trade Infrastructure for Export Scheme (TIES)
- Market Access Initiatives (MAI) Scheme
- The Export Promotion Schemes of APEDA
Risks ahead:
- International prices: The latest FPI reading showing declining trends.
- Domestic food inflation, more curbs on exports and a further liberalisation of imports if the ensuing southwest monsoon season delivers subnormal rainfall.
Related news: Revision in India’s Import-Export tally
Source: TH Context: India’s overall export-import figures (merchandise) for last year have been scaled down by around $3 billion dollars each.
Concerns: Trade deficit raises uncertainty on the outlook for India’s current account deficit and thereby rupee. |
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