EDITORIAL ANALYSIS : A message for the planners in dealing with the Dragon

Source: The Hindu

Prelims: Current events of international importance(LAC, Macmohan line, Galwan, 1962 war etc)
Mains GS Paper II: Bilateral, regional and global grouping involving India, Significance of Indo-Pacific for India etc

ARTICLE HIGHLIGHTS

China’s recent move to ‘allocate’ names to places in Arunachal Pradesh is proof that China does not want to improve the India-China relations.

INSIGHTS ON THE ISSUE

Context

China’s steps of naming places:

Media reports: names include :
- two residential areas
- five mountain peaks
- two rivers
- two other areas”.
In 2017, China had ‘renamed’ six places that lie in Arunachal Pradesh.
China had standardized the names of 15 places in 2021, including population centers, mountains, rivers, and a mountain pass.

Location of places:

Some of the places are located along the Pangchen-Tawang-Jang-Sela axis running down from the Line of Actual Control
Near old Buddhist pilgrimage circuits near Taksing in Upper Subansiri district
Mechuka-Tato tehsil in West Siang
Towards the Lohit and Anjaw districts, near Walong.

Chinese Foreign Minister statement:

“As neighboring countries and major emerging economies, China and India have far more common interests than differences”
Sun Tzu wrote: the acme of skill is winning without fighting.

Realities:

The ‘naming’ farce of Indian territories.
The denial of visas to some Indian media personnel who the Chinese consider to be ‘unhelpful’ in their reporting.

Articulations about the People’s Congress:

Sun Tzu’s trap: The illusion of perpetual competition”,(U.S. Army’s West Point Modern War Institute): It considers China’s President as less of a Sun Tzu follower and cast more in a Maoist mold.
- A form that believes in power flowing through the barrel of a gun.
Foreign Affairs magazine (John Pomfret and Matt Pottinger): Xi Jinping should be taken seriously when he says that he is preparing China for war.
- The article mentions war in relation to Taiwan
Xi’s articulations at the National People’s Congress this year: It points more towards the larger implications of the thinking at the highest level in the Chinese government, i.e:
- The exhortation to work together
- “Dare to fight and be good at fighting”
- To break out of dependence on foreign technologies
- Get society to rally behind the People’s Liberation Army
- Use the thrust towards ‘unification of the motherland’ as a stepping stone to making China great again.

Negotiations:

There have been border talks with China (the 17th installment on December 20, 2022).
Now, the usual post-talks statement of ‘working together to maintain peace’.
‘Moral principles and Strategic Interests’(U.S. Secretary of State George Shultz): Negotiations are an euphemism for capitulation if the shadow of power is not cast across the bargaining table”.
- For authoritarians, the gun is always on the table and for the side without cards or a hand to play, negotiations are an illusion.

Steps around the globe by China:

In 2020, China gave names to 80 geographical features in the Paracels and Spratlys in the South China Sea(maritime disputes with several states).
In 1983, it had named 287 geographical features in the South China Sea.
Using the term “Diaoyutai” for the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea in the 1950s, even before raking up the Senkaku issue with Japan.

Dispute between India and China in 1950’s:(territorial dispute):

Present disputes:

Western sector (Ladakh)(China is seeking claims).
- Trig Heights in the Daulat Beg Oldie (DBO) area
- Demchok in the south
- The Depsang Bulge
- Galwan
- Pangong Lake and Hot Springs
Middle (central sector):
- Barahoti pasture north of Chamoli in Uttarakhand
Eastern sector (Arunachal Pradesh):
- The international boundary and the LAC are defined by the 1914 McMahon Line
- China seeks to make inroads:
  - Tawang sector
  - Upper Subansiri region
  - Tri-junction with Myanmar.

LAC:

The LAC between India and China, is frequently open to challenge by either side.
Areas along the LAC have been patrolled by both sides in the past.
The Chinese ingress in Sumdorong Chu valley in the Tawang sector in 1986-87 resulted in a close confrontation that lasted eight years.
In 1995, two sides pulled back: India relocating its Jaya and Negi posts on the south side of the Hathungla-Lungrola ridgeline.

Way Forward

There has been exhaustive media coverage on arms procurement by our services from domestic players.
- Assets that would carry the war to the adversary are missing from the publicity blitz underway.
- This has been critically commented by the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Defence.
The Indian Air Force (IAF) is a case in point, whose deterrent and striking power would be vital in any India-China conflict.
- The committee has commented adversely on the slow production rate of the Tejas fighter by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited
- IAF’s urgent need to make up its dwindling squadron numbers through the 114 Multi Role Fighter Aircraft
Observations made for hardware procurement for the Indian Army (modernisation of 45% equipment which is in the vintage category) and Indian Navy (requirement of a third aircraft carrier): The committee has acknowledged that funds are scarce, but has recommended that allocation for defense should be 3% of GDP to maintain India’s deterrent posture.
The ongoing one-year-plus Russia-Ukraine conflict has shown that power is not just about possessing capability but also about the capacity-to-last-the-distance too. India’s acquisition plans must be oriented accordingly.