EDITORIAL ANALYSIS : Diplomacy, with a change in terms of reference

Source: The Hindu, The Hindu

Prelims: Current events of international importance, west Asia, saudi-Iran conflict, JCOP, IAEA etc
Mains GS Paper II: Bilateral, regional and global grouping and agreements involving India or affecting India’s interests.

ARTICLE HIGHLIGHTS

In a joint statement on March 10, 2023, by Iran, Saudi Arabia, and China, an agreement has been reached between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran.
- It covers a resumption of diplomatic relations between them and a re-opening of their embassies and missions within a period not exceeding two months.

INSIGHTS ON THE ISSUE

Context

Mediation:

It is rarely a spontaneous act
It is preceded by quiet efforts to seek a meeting point between differing viewpoints of individuals or organizations.
Article 33 of the United Nations Charter among means of ‘Pacific Settlement of Disputes’. but in legal terms is different from Good Offices and Arbitration.

What is the Conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia?

Religious Factor:
- Saudi Arabia broke off ties with Iran in 2016 after protesters invaded Saudi diplomatic posts after Saudi Arabia had executed a prominent Shiite cleric days earlier.
Saudi Arabia has long portrayed itself as the world’s leading Sunni nation while Iran views itself as the protector of the Islam’s Shiite minority.
Attacks on Saudi Arabia: Iran was blamed for a series of attacks including one targeting the heart of Saudi Arabia’s oil industry in 2019.
Regional Cold War: Saudi Arabia and Iran – two powerful neighbors – are locked in a fierce struggle for regional dominance.
Uprisings across the Arab world (after the Arab Spring in 2011) caused political instability throughout the region.
- Iran and Saudi Arabia expand their influence, notably in Syria, Bahrain and Yemen, further heightening mutual suspicions.
Proxy Wars: Iran and Saudi Arabia are not directly fighting but they are engaged in a variety of proxy wars (conflicts where they support rival sides and militias) around the region.
- For Example, Houthi rebels in Yemen. These groups can acquire greater capabilities which can cause further instability in the region.
  - Saudi Arabia accuses Iran of supporting them.

What is the agreement?

Agreement to restore diplomatic ties which have been severed since 2016.
The agreement reinstates two previous accords:
- On security cooperation signed in 2001
- Dealing with economic, technical, scientific and cultural ties.
This agreement ends seven years of diplomatic estrangement between the two Gulf neighbors.
China’s Foreign Affairs Minister: He described it as a “victory for dialogue, a victory for peace”.
The Saudi Foreign Minister said: Saudi “favored political solutions and dialogue
Iranian Foreign minister: affirmed that his country was pursuing “the preparation of more regional steps”.
The agreement affirmed their respect
- For the sovereignty of states
- Non-interference in the internal affairs of states
- Ministers of Foreign Affairs of both countries shall meet to implement this
- Arrange for the return of their Ambassadors
- Discuss means of enhancing bilateral relations.

The Saudi-Iran accord:

The agreement addresses the most serious regional confrontation
It reduces regional tensions and puts in place the bases for further dialogue on improving relations and engaging on contentious issues.
Meetings of Saudi and Iranian officials in Baghdad and Muscat in 2021 and 2022
- Addressing issues that divide the two countries
  - The wars in Syria and Yemen
  - Saudi concerns relating to Iran’s mobilization of Shia communities in the region
- Arab states were prepared to pursue their interests without United States involvement.
- S. not as a security-provider: The U.S.’s military failures in Iraq and Afghanistan contributed to its loss of credibility among its regional allies.

Achievements in the agreement for Iran:

Iran’s willingness to engage in dialogue
Failure of U.S.’s effort to isolate Iran
Strengthening of the alliance of Islamic Countries
Failure of Israeli efforts against this agreement
Failure of U.S. effort to show the Iranian public that it has no choice but to agree to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with America
China’s successful entry in West Asian relations
Failure of dreams of ‘regime change’ in Iran

American and Israeli reactions:

S. reactions; For the US, it reflected the change in terms of reference in international diplomacy.
Israel saw it as a fatal blow to the effort to build a regional coalition against Iran.
Commentators said:‘China brought Saudi Arabia together with Iran at a time when Israel had hoped that the United States would bring it together with Saudi Arabia’.
Henry Kissinger:‘I see it as a substantial change in the strategic situation in the Middle East.
- The Saudis are now balancing their security by playing off the U.S. against China.’
Aaron Miller(served as a State Department adviser on the Middle East): The development ‘demonstrates that the U.S.’s influence and credibility in the region has diminished.
- A new sort of international regional alignment is taking place.
- It has empowered and given both Russia and China newfound influence and status’.

Background of the agreement:

Bilateral efforts have been underway since early 2016.
- Ease of tensions that had developed specifically between Iran, Saudi Arabia and UAE, and generally within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in relation to Yemen and Syria.
The Emir of Kuwait and the Sultan of Oman initiated steps that were responded to by Iran.
Talks were held in Iraq and during the Iranian President’s visit to China.

Role of China:

The official visit by China’s President to Saudi Arabia in December 2022.
China’s President attended the first China-Arab States Summit and the China-GCC Summit.
The theme:‘Building on Past Achievements and Jointly Creating a Brighter Future of China-GCC Relations’.
China and the GCC:
- China will continue to firmly support GCC countries in safeguarding their security,:
- Support the efforts by countries of the region to resolve differences through dialogue and consultation
- Build a gulf security architecture.
China: It ‘welcomes the participation of GCC countries in the Global Security Initiative (GSI) in a joint effort to uphold regional peace and stability’.
Emphasis on Priority areas during the meeting:
- ‘energy cooperation’
- ‘finance and investment cooperation’
- ‘innovation, science and technology’
- ‘aerospace cooperation’
- ‘Chinese language and cultural cooperation’.
An Action Plan for 2023-2027 was agreed upon.
A comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement with specific agreements and some memoranda of understanding were signed.
The statement stressed the importance of deepening joint cooperation with regard to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and on attracting Chinese expertise in Saudi megaprojects.
Signed ‘a harmonizing plan’ between the KSA’s Vision 2030 and the BRI.
It is reported that a China-GCC summit in Beijing is being scheduled.

Importance of West Asia for China;

West Asia is crucial for the realization of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Regional states being important for logistical connectivity, and investment, consultancy and contracting partnerships.
China’s interests require a stable regional environment.

Importance of West Asia for India and the Indian stand:

The historical linkages and the region is in India’s proximate neighborhood and within its security parameters.
It is the principal source of hydrocarbon imports, and increasingly of investments.
It is an important destination for manpower exports apart from being a major trading partner including projects.
The official policy has focused on bilateral relations and avoidance of involvement in bilateral and regional disputes.
India has consciously refrained from speculative ventures in alternate security architectures apart from supporting cooperative security and freedom of waterways and of navigation.

Way Forward

Regional security needs the revival of the nuclear agreement, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and linked with it, the management of Israel’s aggressiveness.
The region should not be viewed in competition with China without the latter’s economic and military capacity
India should not consider itself a surrogate for those who have been outplayed, at least for the moment, in power games for transitory affections.
Saudi-Iran differences will be difficult to resolve: Saudi Arabia’s deep sense of strategic vulnerability vis-à-vis its northern neighbor and concerns that might destabilize regional states through the use of Shia proxies.
Iran will need to play a more proactive role to assure its neighbor of its benign intentions.
Israel’s domestic politics, deeply polarized and dominated by the extreme right wing, is also expected to obstruct the renewal of the JCPOA and maintain a hostile posture towards Iran.
Though serious problems remain with this accord, China has affirmed that its role in West Asian affairs is likely to get more active and substantial.
Challenges for Indian diplomacy: India will need to engage with China in West Asia where they have a broad gamut of shared interests in energy security, free and open sea lanes, logistical connectivity, and, above all, regional stability.