EDITORIAL ANALYSIS : A climate change survival guide to act on

Source: The Hindu

• Prelims: Current events of international importance, COP, IPCC, G20 etc
• Mains GS Paper II: Bilateral, regional and global grouping and agreements involving India or affecting India’s interests, Important international institutions etc

ARTICLE HIGHLIGHTS

• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released the synthesis report of its Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) cycle, drawing together key findings from its six most recent reports.
  • The United Nations Secretary General has called it a ‘survival guide for humanity.

INSIGHTS ON THE ISSUE

Context

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC):

• It is the international body for assessing the science related to climate change.
• It was set up in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) to provide policymakers with regular assessments of the scientific basis of climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for adaptation and mitigation.
• IPCC assessments provide a scientific basis for governments at all levels to develop climate related policies, and they underlie negotiations at the UN Climate Conference – the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

Key takeaways from report:

• Human activity is ‘unequivocally’ driving global temperature rise, which has reached approximately 1.1° C above pre-industrial levels.
• The rate of emissions growth has slowed in the past decade, humanity is estimated to be on a 8°(two point eight)C(2.1°-3.4° C range) trajectory by 2100.
• The temperature rise has already led to rapid and widespread impacts on climatic systems.
• “For any given future warming level, many climate-related risks are higher than assessed in AR5”.
• Considerable attention in the IPCC report to trajectories that constrain global warming to 5°(one point five)C rather than 2° C.

Implications of the relative focus on 1.5°(one point five)C:

• The world’s carbon budget is far lower for the 1.5°(one point five)C than the 2° C targe
• Modeled global pathways suggest that limiting warming to 5° C (with a probability of >50% requires greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to be reduced by 43% by 2030 (median estimate)
  • The same number for limiting warming to 2° C (probability of >67%) is 21%.
• The projected CO2 emissions over the lifetime of existing fossil fuel infrastructure without additional abatement already exceed the remaining carbon budget for 1.5° C.
• Striving for a 1.5° C target implies deep and immediate reductions in emissions in all sectors and regions.
• The IPCC report points out that humanity had already consumed 4/5ths of its total carbon budget for 5°(one point five)C by 2019, with developed economies consuming the lion’s share.
• The existing modeling studies, which are often used to assess emission trajectories, do not explicitly account for questions of equity.
• The recognition of greater risks at lower temperatures points to the necessity of early climate adaptation.
• The report highlights that adaptation itself has limits, which implies that some losses and damages of climate change are inevitable.
• The report finds that some coastal and polar ecosystems have already reached hard limits in their ability to adapt to a changing climate.
• The effectiveness of some of the adaptation options that are feasible and effective today (such as urban greening and restoration of wetlands) decreases with increasing warming.
• The report cautions against certain forms of adaptation such as poorly planned seawalls — dubbed maladaptation — which can defer and intensify the impacts of climate for short term and often iniquitous adaptation gains.
• At higher levels of warming, climate change could lead to cascading risks such as food insecurity, leading to migration, which are intensely challenging to manage.

The key message:

• Urgently adopting ‘climate-resilient development’ — a developmental model that integrates both adaptation and mitigation to advance sustainable development for all.
  • Countries no longer have the luxury of focusing on adaptation or mitigation or even development alone.
• The report assesses the plethora of technologies and design options, such as solar energy or electric vehicles.
  • It can help countries reduce emissions or become more resilient today at low costs, and in a technically feasible manner.
• There are more synergies than trade-offs between mitigation and adaptation actions and Sustainable Development Goals, although it warns against paying inadequate attention to these trade-offs.
• Prioritizing and addressing equity and social justice in transition processes are shown to be key to climate-resilient development.
• A cost-benefit analysis suggests that the air quality and health benefits of mitigation outweigh its costs.

Progress report:

• The report finds some tangible evidence of progress in the proliferation of laws and policies, and confirms the effectiveness of existing policy tools such as regulations and carbon markets.
• Policy packages, which are a coherent and comprehensive set of policies tied to a particular policy objective that can help countries meet short-term economic goals.
• The report points out that there are gaps between modeled sustainable pathways and what countries have pledged (ambition gaps) as well as substantial gaps between what countries pledge and what they actually do (implementation gaps).
• Delayed action risks locking-in to high carbon infrastructure in this decade, and creating stranded assets and financial instability in the medium term.
  • High upfront investments in clean infrastructure are imperative.
• Despite sufficient global capital, both adaptation and mitigation financing need to increase many-fold: between three to six times for annual modeled mitigation investments, from 2020 to 2030.
• The report paints a picture of progress and innovation in the face of inadequate ambition, implementation, climate finance and investment despite the cost-effectiveness of several response options.

What does the report mean for India?

Way Forward

• The IPCC report can shape our collective response in this critical decade, which may be make-or-break for humanity, and is likely to be the last IPCC report for a few years.
• It is important to aspire to a 1.5°C target, the correspondingly lower carbon budget heightens questions of equity and who bears the responsibility for achieving these ambitious targets.
• As countries cannot entirely develop their way out of climate risk and vulnerability, mitigation remains essential.
• While a climate-resilient development pathway is the journey, the destination is net zero emissions at the global level.
  • If sustained, net-zero GHG emissions will result in a gradual decline in global temperatures.
• The IPCC AR6 synthesis report is a landmark report because it offers a blueprint for sustainable development, while presenting a sobering account of present and future damages to ecosystems and the most vulnerable amongst us.

QUESTION FOR PRACTICE

Describe the major outcomes of the 26th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). What are the commitments made by the India conference? (UPSC 2021) (200 WORDS, 10 MARKS)