Prelims: Current events of international importance, multipolar world, SWIFT etc
Mains GS Paper II: Bilateral, regional and global grouping and agreements involving India or affecting India’s interests.
ARTICLE HIGHLIGHTS
- If 2022 was a momentous year for India and the rest of the world, 2023 is likely to further sharpen the geopolitical fault lines set in motion by the previous year.
INSIGHTS ON THE ISSUE
Context
Multilateralism:
- It refers to a set of governing arrangements of fundamental rules, principles, and institutions among nations.
- The United Nations (UN) is an example of a multilateral international institution which aims at making a sustainable and inclusive multilateral global order.
Role of multilateral global order:
Regional and global developments
With which geopolitical and economic rise of Asia coincides:
- Withdrawal of the U.S. from much of continental Asia
- Aggressive rise of China
- Ukraine war
Alternatives to a previous unipolar world:
- Multipolar world with Russia, China, Japan, India and other, smaller powers asserting themselves on the global stage.
- China-dominated Asia: China will lead the world order.
- China-dominated Asia won’t serve India’s geopolitical interests.
Would a multipolar Asia be useful to Indian interests?
- It will invariably take away the relative ‘stability’ of the current world order where the power of the U.S. is on the decline and that of China is (still) on the rise.
- Peaceful coexistence: Multipolarity is premised on the rule of law or peaceful coexistence.
- Foreign secretary H.V. Shringla in 2021: India values a multipolar international order, underpinned by:
- International law
- Respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries
- Resolution of international disputes through peaceful negotiations
- Free and open access for all to the global commons
Implications of a multipolar world:
- Financial order: Sharpening of opposition against the current global financial order.
- Weaponization of globalization and trade
- Sanctions against Russia, and Russia’s attempts in turn at evading them with help from its Asian partners (China, Iran, Turkey, India, etc.)
- Challenges to dollar-based trade and Western payment systems such as SWIFT.
Why will India hesitate to engage in the emergent Asian century?
- The Indian establishment has a deeply status quoist view of the world order despite its frequent calls for change.
- It believes in a more democratic, orderly and rules-based world order
- It recognises that major systemic changes could also be accompanied by chaos.
- India likes slow, peaceful and consensual transformation of the system which, of course, is not what is happening today.
- Asian century without stable multipolarity: Multipolar world is most likely going to be a passing phenomenon.
- It will be replaced by a bipolar world dominated by the U.S. and China with others acting as balancing factors.
- A bipolar international system dominated by China and the U.S. is a bad deal for India: India, being a next-door adversary of China, could often be the target of Chinese ire.
- If the U.S. accommodates China as a peer: it could mean the U.S. accepting China’s sphere of influence.
- This could make India a casualty at the altar of great power politics.
Way Forward
- Rise of Asia: Asia may be headed towards more global prominence, but instability will be its possessive partner.
- India might speak like a revisionist power: It should be prepared to deal with the harsh headwinds of the geopolitical contests of an Asian century.
- For China, an American offer of accommodation in a G2 format outweighs the utility of a closer strategic partnership with an embattled Russia.
- China’s growing material power – both economic and military: It is already paving the way for it, especially with the U.S.’s focus firmly entrenched in the Russia-Ukraine theater.
- India may be looking at a ‘post-Indian South Asia’ in the not-so-distant future, tucked away in the Chinese sphere of influence, though not entirely inimical to Indian interests.
- Multipolar world: India has to play a critical role in the cooperative networked system in our multi-polar world.
- India belongs both to the non-aligned movement: which reflects its experience of colonialism, and the community of democracies.
- It reflects its 75 years of experience as a democracy alongside many of the countries it rails against in the non-aligned movement.
QUESTION FOR PRACTICE
Q. “If the last few decades were Asia’s growth story, the next few are expected to be Africa’s.” In the light of this statement, examine India’s influence in Africa in recent years(UPSC 2021) (200 WORDS, 10 MARKS)
