- Prelims: Current events of national importance(Fertility rate, World Population prospects, SDGs etc)
- Mains GS Paper I & II: Social empowerment, development and management of social sectors/services related to Health.
ARTICLE HIGHLIGHTS
- Two weeks ago, the world population reached 8 billion.
- India was the largest contributor to the last billion and is set to surpass China as the world’s most populous nation by 2023.
INSIGHTS ON THE ISSUE
Context
Depopulation(population decline, underpopulation, population collapse):
- It is a reduction in a human population size
- Population growth has declined mainly due to the abrupt decline in the global total fertility rate.
Key elements of depopulation:
- Equitable sharing of housework
- Access to subsidized child care that allows women to have families as well as a career
- Lowered barriers to immigration to enable entry to working-age people from countries which aren’t yet in population decline.
Global status:
- China’s population: It has begun to decline.
- India’s population is expected to grow for another 40 years.
- United Nations estimates: India’s population will begin to decline only in 2063.
- World population: It is expected to grow until
Why is fertility rate falling in India:
- Rising incomes
- Greater female access to health and education.
Fertility in India:
- India’s total fertility rate: It is now below the replacement rate of fertility.
- States below the replacement rate They are at the cusp of real declines in population.
- Kerala: achieved replacement fertility in 1998
- Tamil Nadu: achieved this in 2000
- National Family Health Survey (NFHS): It estimated India’s urban fertility rate to be 1.6(one point six)- 2019-21, which places it next to the U.K.
Status of Kerala and Tamil Nadu:
- Both Kerala and TN:They need to re-examine the continued sustainability of low in-migration.
- In 2011: The median Tamilian was 10 years older than the median Bihari.
- By 2036; they will be separated by over 12 years
- The working-age population of the future will skew northwards.
- Migration rate: Both States had negative net migration rates
- which means they sent out more migrants than they received.
Challenges due to depopulation:
- Skewed sex ratio: It remains a danger.
- NFHS: families with at least one son are less likely to want more children than families with just one daughter.
- The stark differences between northern and southern States in terms of basic literacy as well as enrollment in higher education, including in technical fields.
- It will mean that workers from the southern States are not automatically replaceable.
- Sharp anti-Muslim tone in the conversation has remained even though fertility between Hindus and Muslims is converging.
Fertility rate:
- The fertility rate at a given age is the number of children born alive to women of that age during the year as a proportion of the average annual population of women of the same age
India’s Population Issues:
Way Forward
- With falling mortality (barring the pandemic): The total population of Kerala and TN will continue to grow for the next few decades, which means that fewer working-age people must support more elderly people than ever before.
- Decades of focus on lowering fertility: It is for the southern States to break away from this outmoded, data-free rhetoric and join the global conversation on depopulation.
- Conversations around fertility reductions in the southern States are often framed around the price that these States are having to pay in relation to others in terms of the share of federal tax receipts or political representation.
QUESTION FOR PRACTICE
Q. Despite Consistent experience of high growth, India still goes with the lowest indicators of human development. Examine the issues that make balanced and inclusive development elusive. (UPSC 2021) (200 WORDS, 10 MARKS)
