EDITORIAL ANALYSIS :  The old but relevant script of the Cuban Missile crisis

Source: The Hindu

• Prelims:Current events of international importance, cuban missile crisis, NATO, FROG missile etc
• Mains GS Paper II:Bilateral, regional and global grouping involving India or affecting India’s interests etc

ARTICLE HIGHLIGHTS

• The world marks 60 years since the fateful events of the Cuban missile crisis.
  • The US President recently invoked revisiting the Cuban missile crisis.

INSIGHTS ON THE ISSUE

Context

The Major reasons for Cuban Missile Crisis were:

1. Cuba was under threat of military invasion by the USA: USSR wanted to help as a gesture of solidarity with Cuba which was a socialist country.
2. The USSR lost the lead in developing ICBMs: It was looking for an opportunity to encircle the USA from a close range.
3. Cuba seemed to be an ideal place to initiate a counter strike against the USA: USA in 1959 deployed Jupiter nuclear missiles in Turkey, which threatened the security of the USSR.
4. As a bargaining measure: USSR wanted to use the missiles in Cuba for bargaining with the West over removing American missiles from Europe or a withdrawal from Berlin by the West.

The Agreement:

• The crisis came to an end after UN intervention.
• Russian ships turned back: It was followed by a compromise between the US and USSR.
• Jupiter missiles: The US president promised to disarm the Jupiter missiles deployed in Turkey.
• The USSR agreed to withdraw the Russian missilesand destroy the launching sites in Cuba
• The USA agreed not to invade Cuba again.

Consequences of the Cuban Missile Crisis:

• Ouster of Khrushchev in USSR: He was forced into retirement by other Soviet officials
• John F. Kennedy: His calm but firm stance in the negotiations was heralded as great statesmanship.
• Nuclear: convinced the US of the dangers of nuclear brinkmanship.
• Treaty in 1963:United States, the Soviet Union, and Great Britain signed a treaty banning atmospheric and underwater nuclear testing.

Circumstances around Russia-Ukraine war:

• Russia’s short ‘special military operations:  To ‘deNazify and de-militarise’ Ukraine
• North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) unity:under U.S. leadership despite visible internal differences has not collapsed
• Zelensky’s emergence as a wartime leader.
• Poor Russian military planning and performance.

Lessons from Cuban Missile crisis:

• Keeping it below the nuclear threshold: Two nuclear superpowers should steer clear of any direct confrontation even as their rivalry played out in other regions, thereby.
  • Deterrence theorists called it stability-instability-paradox
• Nuclear war games: They over decades remained unable to address the challenge of keeping a nuclear war limited once a nuclear weapon was introduced in battle.

Is there a threat of Nuclear war in the Russia-Ukraine case?

• Russia’s large-scale exercises: Involving ‘strategic forces’, and placing nuclear forces on ‘special combat alert’.
• Bombing: Russia cited U.S. bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945 as a precedent.
• Partial mobilization: announced referendums in the four regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia,
  • warned that Russia has ‘more modern weapons’ and ‘will certainly make use of all weapon systems available.

Implications of using Nuclear weapons:

• National resolve: It will only strengthen Ukrainian national resolve
• NATO: response is unlikely to be nuclear but will be sharp.
• International political backlash: It would be significant and Mr. Putin may find himself increasingly isolated.
• Nuclear weapons as security: Many countries in Eastand Central Asia could reconsider nuclear weapons as a security necessity.

Way Forward

• The United Nations appears paralysed: Therefore, it is for other global leaders who have access and influence, to convince Mr. Putin that nuclear escalation would be a disastrous move.
• SCO Meet: In a bilateral meeting with the Russian President, the PM of India emphasized that “now is not the era of war”.
• G20 meet: India and Indonesia are well placed to take a diplomatic initiative to persuade Mr. Putin to step away from the nuclear rhetoric.
• Deterrence: Emphasizing the deterrent role of nuclear weapons and not expanding it
• Reiterating Russia’s official declaratory position: that restricts nuclear use for “an existential threat
  • It reduces growing fears of escalation and also provides a channel for communication and opens the door for a dialogue that can lead to a ceasefire.

QUESTION FOR PRACTICE

1. What is the significance of Indo-US deals over Indo-Russian defense deals? Discuss with reference to stability in the Indo-Pacific region.(UPSC 2020)

(250 WORDS, 15 MARKS)