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EDITORIAL ANALYSIS : Globe-changing reverberations of the Ukraine war

Source: The Hindu

 

  • Prelims: Current events of international importance, NATO, EU etc
  • Mains GS Paper II: Bilateral, regional and global grouping involving India and affecting India’s interests etc

 

ARTICLE HIGHLIGHTS

  • On its vulnerable western front, Russia has one supportive neighbour, six North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) adversaries, and two who are ambiguously inclined.
  • Ukraine’s relations with the European Union (EU) and NATO were always a matter of contention.

          

 

INSIGHTS ON THE ISSUE

Context

North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO):

  • Headquarters: Brussels, Belgium.
  • It is a military alliance established by the North Atlantic Treaty (also called the Washington Treaty) of April, 1949, by the United States, Canada, and several Western European nations to provide collective security against the Soviet Union.
  • There are currently 30 member states.
  • NATO’s essential and enduring purpose is to safeguard the freedom and security of all its members by political and military means.
  • NATO has an integrated military command structure but very few forces or assets are exclusively its own.

 

Response by Western countries and institutions towards Ukraine war:

  • Assistance by NATO: In weaponry, training, communications, satellite and human intelligence, reconnaissance, information processing systems and total control over the global media.
  • World Bank: The World Bank rushed $5(four point five)billion to Ukraine
  • IMF: The International Monetary Fund came up with $4(one point four)billion.
  • The United States: Itexerted pressure on India and others to boycott Iranian and Venezuelan oil, which shifted to Russia.

 

Nuclear Doctrine of Russia:

In 2020 it declared that it would use nuclear weapons in four instances:

  • If alarmed by an incoming missile
  • Subjected to attack by weapons of mass destruction
  • Suffered damage to infrastructure that housed its nuclear arsenal
  • When conventional war threatened the existence of Russia

 

Consequences of the first major armed conflict in Europe since the Second World War:

  • Hostility: A country devastated by Russia would remain hostile
  • Resistance: Resistance instigated by the West will continue.
  • Reputational damage: Under pressure from both domestic anti-war activists and ultra-nationalists, Mr. Putin will suffer reputational damage internationally and domestically.

 

Where China and India stand:

China:

  • Beijing could enlist Russia as a junior partner or buttress it: Even China risks confronting its major trade partners, the United States and the EU.
  • Only a permanent member in the UN Security Council not directly involved in the war: China enjoys both leverage and self-interest in shaping the outcome of the conflict, considering the politico-strategic ramifications on its own future.

India:

  • The abandoning of Russia as a partner: It will set back its longed-for multi-polar world and its security in terms of political support and collaborative projects in defense, space and nuclear energy.
  • The expected turn to the U.S.: It would come at the cost of greater expense and greater conditionality.

 

Way Forward

  • Growth of nationalism: The strength of nationalism, based on ethnicity, culture, religion, history and language, will grow.
  • The Ukraine war will lead to major economic shifts: States suffering from western sanctions or affected collateral will seek alternative financial and monetary platforms.
  • Fragmentation of the monetary and financial order: It should be anticipated, including increased protectionism and a retreat from globalization which will severely depress the growth of world trade.

 

 QUESTION FOR PRACTICE

  1. What introduces friction into the ties between India and the United States is that Washington is still unable to find for India a position in its global strategy, which would satisfy India’s National self- esteem and ambitions” Explain with suitable examples.(UPSC 2019)

(200 WORDS, 10 MARKS)