Source: The Hindu
- Prelims: Current events of international importance, Important International Institutes, SIPRI’s annual report, Nuclear Disarmament agreements.
- Mains GS Paper II: Significance of Important International Institutes, Significance of nuclear disarmament.
ARTICLE HIGHLIGHTS
- The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute(SIPRI) released its yearbook a few days back highlighting some worrying trends of the past year in international security.
- The Expected rise of the global nuclear arsenal was the chief cause of concern among SIPRI experts.
- The comprehensive report claims that while absolute numbers of nuclear arsenal have reduced, they are expected to grow over the next decade.
INSIGHTS ON THE ISSUE
Context
Nuclear Disarmament
- Nuclear disarmament is the act of reducing or eliminating nuclear weapons.
- It can also be the end state of a nuclear-weapons-free world
(NWFW), in which nuclear weapons are completely eliminated. - The United Nations sought to eliminate Nuclear weapons in the first resolution adopted by the UN General Assembly in 1946.
- The resolution established a Commission to deal with problems related to the discovery of atomic energy among others and also decided that the Commission should make proposals for “the elimination from national armaments of atomic weapons and of all other major weapons adaptable to mass destruction.”
What have been the trends in military spending?
- During 2012-2021, military spending as a percentage of gross domestic product has largely been stable.
- Russia leads the charge in absolute numbers of nuclear inventory (5977 against the U.S’s 5428), however it is the U.S that has the largest number of deployed warheads (1744 against Russia’s 1588).
- The U.K. has 225 nuclear weapons in its inventory, while France has 290,
- China has 350, India has 160, Pakistan has 165.
- Israel is estimated to have 90 and North Korea 20.
Global arms imports:
- ranging from the development of newer and more efficient nuclear submarines, aircraft carriers, fighter jets, manned and unmanned aerial vehicles to the growing spread of the use of missile defense systems which may result in aggravating security concerns for other countries.
- The yearbook has highlighted India as being the top weapons importer during the 2017-2021 period.
- Other countries to feature in the top five arms importers list include Saudi Arabia, Egypt, China, and Australia.
- According to SIPRI, these five nation states account for 38% of total global arms import.
Key developments/concerns flagged by the yearbook:
- The yearbook mentions low level border clashes between India and Pakistan, the civil war in Afghanistan, and the armed conflict in Myanmar as some of the worrying indicators of an unstable system.
- It highlighted three causes of concern:
- Chinese American rivalry
- Involvement of state and nonstate actors in multiple conflicts
- Challenge that climatic and weather hazards pose.
- The marginal downsizing observed in the nuclear arsenal has come mostly from the U.S. and Russia dismantling retired warheads.
- China’s recent activities surrounding construction of 300 new nuclear missile silos have also been turning heads.
- India and Pakistan seem to be making gains over their nuclear arsenal (in absolute numbers) while also looking at the development and procurement of newer and more efficient forms of delivery systems.
Has Iran inflated its military expenditure?
- The SIPRI yearbook claims that while there were some advances over the rollout of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, Iran increased its enrichment of Uranium-235 to 60% in 2021.
- It also reported that Iran’s military budget grew to $24.6 billion, growing for the first time in four years.
- However, some analysts believe that SIPRI has, over the years, overstated Iran’s military expenditure.
General attitude among countries about existing nuclear and arms related treaties:
- The leaders of the P5 countries (China, France, Russia, the U.K.and the U.S.) issued a joint statement affirming the belief that “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.
- Nation states are making sure to remain well within the ambit of what the treaties and agreements ask for.
- While the Ukrainian invasion saw the Russian military and political establishment hype up its nuclear attack rhetoric against Ukraine, its primary leadership (both civil and military) had been rather diplomatic and ‘relatively’ cordial in its treatment of the Finnish and Swedish NATO bids.
- The year 2021 also saw the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, 2017coming into effect.
- The Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) and the Missile Technology Control Regimes (MTCR) held their annual meetings despite decision making being limited due to the COVID19 pandemic.
India’s role in global nuclear disarmament:
- India has always been an ardent supporter of multilateral nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation efforts.
- In 1965, India was amongst the Non-Aligned Eight in the Eighteen Nation Disarmament Committee (ENDC) that advocated for de-linking disarmament and non-proliferation.
- India opposed to signing the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), which it views as discriminatory because of its grouping of countries that divided the world into “nucleal haves” and “nuclear have-nots’.
- India proposed a comprehensive proposal for “complete and universal nuclear disarmament” to the UN General Assembly Special Session on Disarmament in 1988, which came to be
known as the Rajiv Gandhi Action Plan. - India has not signed the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) due to the failure of the treaty to include a commitment by the nuclear-weapon States to eliminate nuclear weapons within a time-bound framework.
- Through its Nuclear doctrine in 2003, India has asserted its continued commitment to the goal of a nuclear weapon free world through global, verifiable, and non-discriminatory nuclear disarmament.
- India has also opposed the recent enforcement of Treaty on Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) which India believes is not a comprehensive instrument on disarmament as it excludes the verification of nuclear armaments.
| Treaty on Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW):
● This treaty was officially adopted in 2017 due to efforts by the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN). ● At present, 86 member-states have signed the Treaty, and 51 of them have ratified it. ● The US, Russia, China, Britain, France, India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel (countries possessing nuclear weapons) and NATO alliance did not support it. ● India believes that the treaty does not constitute or contribute to the development of customary international law, nor does it set any new standards or norms. ● The entry into force of the TPNW means that the treaty’s provisions will be legally binding for the states that have ratified or acceded to it. ● TPNW prohibits States Parties to: 1. Develop, test, produce, manufacture, otherwise acquire, possess or stockpile nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices. 2. Transfer to any recipient whatsoever nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices or control over such weapons or explosive devices directly or indirectly. 3. Receive the transfer of or control over nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices directly or indirectly. 4. Use or threaten to use nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices 5. Assist, encourage or induce, anyone to engage in any activity prohibited to a State Party under this Treaty. 6. Allow any stationing, installation or deployment of any nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices in its territory.
International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN): ● ICAN is an international coalition of NGOs running the campaign to advocate United Nations Weapon ● Ban treaty in about 100 countries. ● ICAN also received the 2017 Nobel peace prize due to its efforts. Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA): ● The JCPOA was the result of prolonged negotiations from 2013 and 2015 between Iran and P5+1 (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States + Germany). ● Under the deal, Iran agreed to significantly cut its stores of centrifuges, enriched uranium and heavy-water, all key components for nuclear weapons. ● Iran also agreed to implement a protocol that would allow inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to access its nuclear sites to ensure Iran would not be able to develop nuclear weapons in secret. ● While the West agreed to lift sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear proliferation, other sanctions addressing alleged abuses of human rights and Iran’s ballistic missile programme remained in place. ● The US committed to lifting sanctions on oil exports, but continued to restrict financial transactions, which have deterred international trade with Iran. ● After Trump abandoned the deal and reinstated banking and oil sanctions, Iran ramped up its nuclear programme in earnest, returning to approximately 97% of its pre-2015 nuclear capabilities.
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Way Forward
- A strong political opposition would be needed to help keep the ruling dispensation in check.
- Furthermore, the two largest nuclear weapons holding states need to take on a more engaging role in the international arena.
- SIPRI’s yearbook, while not being devoid of some challenges, forces us to look critically at how the global disarmament project seems to be going.
- Thus, the challenge for the international community will be to reconcile states’ desire for energy independence with their desire to both reduce the intrusiveness of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards and diminish the possibility of proliferation.
- Rising energy demands have led to a growing number of countries pursuing nuclear energy, and many countries wish to be energy-independent, in order to ensure a sustainable and dependable domestic energy supply. As clean energy, development, and peaceful coexistence are essential for every country.
- Further, the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons is a step in the right direction for nuclear disarmament.
QUESTION FOR PRACTICE
Recent geopolitical events transpiring around the world in practically all regions have made the global security climate more unstable. Do you agree with the statement? Critically analyze the steps taken by India for nuclear disarmament.
(200 WORDS, 10 MARKS)
