Insights EDITORIAL ANALYSIS : Gradual engagement

Source: The Hindu

• Prelims: Current events of international importance, Regional forums, India-Afghanistan relations.
• Mains GS Paper II: Significance of Afghanistan for India, India and its neighborhood relations

ARTICLE HIGHLIGHTS

• India’s decision to send a diplomatic delegation to Kabul to meet with Taliban officials shows a marked difference from the policy India took in the1990s when the Taliban was in power in Afghanistan.
• In September, India’s Ambassador to Qatar, met a senior Taliban official, at the Indian Embassy in Doha.
• In October, Indian officials met the Taliban’s Deputy Prime Minister in Moscow At a regional conference on Afghanistan.
• India joined nine other countries in Moscow to recognise the “new reality” in Afghanistan.
• India sent humanitarian assistance, including wheat, COVID-19 vaccines and winter clothes, to Afghanistan when the country was facing a near total economic collapse.

INSIGHTS ON THE ISSUE

Context

India Afghanistan relations:

• India has historically enjoyed good ties with Afghanistan, barring a brief pause in the 1990s, which go back to the 1950 Treaty of Friendship.
• Indian interests and influence suffered when the Taliban, backed by Pakistan, captured Kabul in 1996.
• But India was back in action as soon as the Taliban were ousted from power after the US invasion in 2001.
• India has made huge investments and commitments ever since, which run into over USD 3 billion, and cultivated strong economic and defense ties with the Afghan government.
• US’s pullback has effectively changed the balance of power in Afghanistan and the Taliban takeover causing uncertainty in relations.

India’s Options In Afghanistan:

• Talking with the Taliban:

1. It will allow India to seek security guarantees from the insurgents in return for continued development assistance or other pledges as well as explore the possibility of the Taliban’s autonomy from Pakistan.
2. India should not overlook the deep ties between Pakistan’s security establishment and the Haqqani Network, a major faction within the Taliban.

• There is no guarantee that India’s quest for engagement with the Taliban would produce a desirable outcome. So India should broad-base its options.
• While talking to the Taliban to protect its interests, India should also enhance aid to Afghanistan and work with other regional powers for long-term stability in the country.
• Regional solution: There is a convergence of interests between India and three key regional players — China, Russia and Iran — in seeing a political settlement in Afghanistan. Thus, there is a need for cooperation from like minded countries on this front.
• Long Term Goals:

The long-term goal should be finding a political solution to the crisis. None of this can be achieved unless it works together with the regional powers.

• Russian Support: Russia has cultivated links with the Taliban in recent years. India would need Russia’s support in any form of direct engagement with the Taliban.
• Significance of Iran:

1. Iran shares a long border with Afghanistan and has close resemblance of ethnic minorities.
2. The original objective of India’s Chabahar project in Iran was to create a direct access to Afghanistan, bypassing Pakistan.
3. This direct access is critical for India in all different scenarios — move supplies to Afghanistan in larger quantities, retain its presence in Afghanistan and carry out covert operations

• Bonhomie With China: India should talk with China, with the objective of finding a political settlement and lasting stability in Afghanistan.

India’s Investment in Afghanistan:

Why do relations with Afghanistan matter?

• Geostrategic and geopolitical location:

1. It is situated at the crossroads of the Middle East, Central Asia and the Indian subcontinent, it has been a transit and transport hub since the ancient Silk route.
2. It has borders with six other nations including Iran, Pakistan, China, Turkmenistan have made it a hot-bed for conflict and cooperation.

• Regional organization

1. It is also perhaps the only SAARC nation whose people have much affection for India.
2. After a break between 1996 and 2001, when India joined the world in shunning the previous Taliban regime, one way New Delhi re-established ties with the country was to pour in development assistance.

• Historical background:

1. India and Afghanistan have a strong relationship based on historical and cultural links.
2. The relationship has its foundations in the historical contacts and exchanges between the people.
3. In the recent past, India-Afghanistan relations have been further strengthened by the Strategic Partnership Agreement, which was signed between the two countries in October 2011.

Challenges For India:

• Issue of Indian Security:

1. The restoration of Taliban rule in Afghanistan presents some very serious potential challenges for Indian security.
2. The challenges range from securing its development infrastructures to border security.

• Spread of International Terrorism: The bigger challenge will be about the Taliban’s renewed support for international terrorism and Pakistan’s re-direction of terrorist groups that have allegedly fought with the Taliban towards India.
• Religious Fundamentalism:

1. Like all radical groups, the Taliban will have trouble balancing its religious ideology with the imperatives of state interests.
2. India faces a challenge to deradicalise the region for long lasting peace and stability.

• New Regional Geopolitical Developments: There can be new regional geopolitical alignments (such as China-Pakistan-Taliban) which may go against the interests of India.
• No Contiguity With Taliban:

1. Unlike Pakistan, China and Iran, India has no contiguity with Afghanistan.
2. India has no such security responsibilities and no direct access to Central Asia.
3. This may give reasons to the Taliban to hit back at India through Pakistan in J&K, given that LeT and Jaish are operating in Afghanistan alongside the Taliban.

Need of recent engagement with Taliban:

• It will prevent India from getting marginalized in a country that is vital to its strategic interests in the region, and where the people’s affection for India is legendary.
• The Taliban today is looking for regional and global partners for recognition and legitimacy especially in the neighborhood. Also, to balance its neighbour Pakistan, Taliban might be looking for India as its strategic partner.
• It makes neither strategic nor economic sense to withdraw from Afghanistan after spending over $3 billion by India in developmental aid. Therefore, India needs to engage with the Taliban to ensure security of its civilian assets.
• India needs to be proactive in Afghanistan, otherwise Russia, Iran, Pakistan and China will emerge as the shapers of Afghanistan’s political and geopolitical destiny, which for sure will be detrimental to Indian interests there.
• Time for de-hyphenating the relationship: India has de-hyphenated the Israel & Palestine relationships that is a pragmatic & the necessity in globalized multi-polar world order. There is a growing view that it is time to de-hyphenate Pakistan from the Taliban.
• Taliban in power are more divided than they were as a fighting force, and that the situation provides room for a layered political and diplomatic engagement with different actors.

 Way Forward

• To prevent rise of terrorism in Kashmir: India saw a sharp rise in violence in Kashmir during the MujahideenTaliban reign of Afghanistan. India would not like history to repeat itself and would want commitments from the Taliban that they would not offer support for anti-India groups. So engagement is a move in forward direction.
• India should work with other regional and global players to push the Taliban to adopt a more inclusive regime, while at the same time maintaining a policy of gradual bilateral engagement rooted in realism.
• India cannot pursue its economic and strategic interests if it does not engage with the Taliban. But, at the same time, India should not hurry in to offer diplomatic recognition to the Taliban’s predominantly Pashtun, men-only regime, which has imposed harsh restrictions on women at home.

QUESTION FOR PRACTICE

India should maintain a policy of gradual bilateral engagement rooted in realism with Afghanistan. Critically analyze. (200 WORDS, 10 MARKS)