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WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update:

GS Paper 3:

Topics Covered: Conservation related issues.

 

Context:

The global annual to decadal climate update report was recently issued by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).

  • The annual update harnesses the expertise of internationally acclaimed climate scientists and the best prediction systems from leading climate centres around the world to produce actionable information for decision-makers.

 

Major Findings:

  • There is a 50 per cent chance that the world may temporarily breach 1.5°C of warming in one of the next five years.
  • There is a 93 per cent chance that at least one year between 2022 and 26 will replace 2016 as the warmest year on record.
  • The chance of temporarily exceeding 1.5°C has risen steadily since 2015, when it was close to zero. For the years between 2017 and 2021, there was a 10% chance of exceedance. That probability has increased to nearly 50% for the 2022-2026 period.
  • The annual mean global near-surface temperature for each year between 2022 and 2026 is predicted to be between 1.1 °C and 1.7 °C higher than preindustrial levels (the average over the years 1850-1900).
  • The Arctic temperature anomaly, compared to the 1991-2020 average, is predicted to be more than three times as large as the global mean anomaly when averaged over the next five northern hemisphere extended winters.
  • There is no signal for the El Niño Southern Oscillation for December-February 2022/23, but the Southern Oscillation index is predicted to be positive in 2022.

 

India Specific Findings:

  • India could be among the few regions globally where below normal temperatures have been predicted for the year 2022 and the next four years.
  • This may be because of the possible increase in rainfall activity in this decade. Many parts of India will receive above-normal rainfall. This will keep temperatures low.

 

Insta Curious:

The 1.5°C target is enshrined in the Paris Agreement, which aims to “limit global warming to well below 2, preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels.”

  • 5°C is the difference between the Earth’s average temperature in the late 1800s and average temperatures today.
  • Crossing this limit would cause irreversible damage to the planet’s fragile ecosystems and unleash harsh impacts on human, plant and animal life.

 

InstaLinks:

Prelims Link:

  1. Paris Agreement.
  2. Climate change.
  3. Climate finance.
  4. Unfccc.
  5. UNCCD.

Mains Link:

Discuss the significance of WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update.

 

Q.5) With reference to the Agreement at the UNFCCC Meeting in Paris in 2015, which of the following statements is/are correct? (UPSC 2016).

  1. The Agreement was signed by all the member countries of the UN and it will go into effect in 2017.
  2. The Agreement aims to limit greenhouse gas emissions so that the rise in average global temperature by the end of this century does not exceed 2ºC or even 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels.
  3. Developed countries acknowledged their historical responsibility in global warming and committed to donate $ 1000 billion a year from 2020 to help developing countries to cope with climate change.

Select the correct answer using the code given below:

(a) 1 and 3 only.

(b) 2 only.

(c) 2 and 3 only.

(d) 1, 2 and 3. 

Sources: Down to Earth.