Insights into Editorial: The road to Ukraine peace runs through Delhi

Context:

With the recent diplomatic visits to India, by the U.S. Deputy National Security Adviser for International Economics, the British Secretary of State for Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Affairs and Minister for Women and Equalities, and the Russian Foreign Minister, show that the world expects India to play a more active role in the Ukrainian crisis.

Introduction:

Nearly 40 days ago, Russia launched a full-scale military invasion of Ukraine in violation of international law and its security assurances under the Budapest Memorandum, 1994. And, there are no winners in sight.

Despite peace talks held on March 29, in Istanbul (Turkey), direct negotiations between the conflicting parties have failed to make much progress: a ceasefire is yet to be achieved, and the Russian attacks on the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine continue.

As a result, there have been 3,455 civilian casualties recorded in Ukraine (1,417 killed and 2,038 injured) while more than four million people have fled seeking protection, safety and assistance.

What’s Russia’s problem with Nato?

For Russia’s leader the West’s 30-member defensive military alliance has one aim – to split society in Russia and ultimately destroy it.

Ahead of the war, Russia demanded that NATO turn the clock back to 1997 and reverse its eastward expansion, removing its forces and military infrastructure from member states that joined the alliance from 1997 and not deploying “strike weapons near Russia’s borders“. That means Central Europe, Eastern Europe and the Baltics.

Problems on Russian side as well:

In addition to casualties on the Russian side, financial and economic sanctions imposed by the European Union and the G7 have impacted the Russian economy.

Despite artificial measures to prop up the rouble, the economy is tanking, annual inflation has jumped to 15.6%, the Russian Central Bank’s forex reserves remain frozen and it cannot access financing and loans from multilateral institutions.

At the global level, this war is disrupting supply chains and is causing the fuel and food prices to surge.

What’s happening on the economic front?

1. European governments rejected Putin’s energy ultimatum, with the continent’s biggest recipient of Russian gas, Germany, calling it “blackmail”.
2. US President announced the largest release from the US emergency oil reserve to bring down gasoline prices that have soared during the war.
3. The war also threatens to disrupt global food supplies, with a US government official sharing images of what they said was damage to grain storage facilities in Ukraine, the world’s fourth-largest gain exporter in the 2020/21 season.
4. Russia and Ukraine are to resume peace talks online on April 1, a senior Ukrainian official said.
5. The Russian defence ministry said it would open a humanitarian corridor from Mariupol to Zaporizhzhia.

Mediation as a conflict resolution tool:

Mediation is a tool that avoids ‘being re-active’. More importantly, it helps focus on the number one priority, i.e., the safety of the Ukrainian people through a complete ceasefire.

Furthermore, a mediator’s skill of strategic empathy (also a tool of statecraft) will further help understand Mr. Putin’s underlying drivers and constraints.

Positions versus Interests and importance of Mediation:

1. A ‘position’ is a surface statement of what a party wants; for example, Russia’s demand that Ukraine recognises the separatist republics of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states.
2. Whereas, ‘interests’ are the underlying reasons behind those positions; for instance, why is Russia focused on the independence of these separatist areas?
3. Therefore, mediation as a conflict resolution tool can assist the parties in identifying these hidden ‘interests’ and facilitate them in working towards crafting a solution that each of the parties would value, a Europe of common security and prosperity where the sovereignty of all nations (Ukraine, Russia and the West) are guaranteed.
4. Mediation (or assisted negotiation) is a flexible conflict resolution tool facilitated by a neutral third party.
5. Depending on the choice of parties, it can be facilitative or evaluative and can be conducted in joint sessions or caucuses (i.e., private meetings).
6. International mediation follows this process of “assisting two or more contending parties to find a solution without resorting to force”.
7. Due to its immense potential, the Charter of the United Nations under Article 33 recognises the promise of international mediation for peaceful resolution of international disputes.

Way Ahead steps: India fits the bill:

1. Mediation is certainly feasible between Russia and Ukraine because there exists a willingness to talk.
2. But for this to commence, the approval of the parties concerned will be crucial. Much depends on the identity of the mediator.
3. This is India’s golden chance to establish itself as a global power.
4. More importantly, playing mediator in this dispute is in India’s long-term interest in countering the China threat — especially with a growing “no limits” partnership between Russia and China.
5. Moreover, with the rise of China and its belligerence, its relationship with the West has soured.
6. As a result, the U.S. and its allies need India as a strategic partner to balance the rise of China in the Indo-Pacific; it is for this reason, that India is now a member of the Quad.

Conclusion:

For now, India is right in not taking sides. Its relationship with the then-Soviet Union was forged to balance against China (as the U.S. was cosying up to China).

But with the Ukraine invasion and western sanctions, Russia is now more dependent on China.

Hence, if India wants the best of both worlds, it must step up and live up to its claim of becoming a ‘Vishwa-Guru’ (or world leader).