Topics Covered: Important aspects of governance, transparency and accountability.
Top Risks 2020
What to study?
For Prelims: Key findings.
For Mains: Concerns expressed, challenges and ways to address them.
Context: Eurasia Group has released its report titled “Top Risks 2020”.
The Eurasia Group is one of US’ most influential risk assessment companies.
Observations made on India:
- India is one of the world’s top geopolitical risks for 2020. It is the 5th highest geopolitical risk.
- PM Narendra Modi has spent much of his second term promoting controversial social policies at the expense of an economic agenda.
- The impacts will be felt in 2020, with intensified communal and sectarian instability, as well as foreign policy and economic setbacks.
- Modi has less room to manoeuvre on structural reforms, just as the economy is starting to sputter, with quarterly growth falling to a six-year low of 4.5% and forward-looking indicators looking softer still.
- A weakened economy will in turn feed further economic nationalism and protectionism, weighing on India’s troubled course in 2020.
- US and its broken domestic politics is the “top” global geopolitical risk of this year.
- There were risks of a US election that many will view as illegitimate, uncertainty in its aftermath, and a foreign policy environment made less stable by the resulting vacuum. Besides, a broken impeachment mechanism, questions of electoral illegitimacy, and a series of court challenges will make this the most volatile year of politics the US has experienced in generations.
- The top risks include the technological “decoupling” between the US and China and the challenges that it poses to the world besides the enduring US-China tensions.
- This will lead to “more explicit clash over security, influence and values.”
- Countries and governments will push back more and more against multinational corporations, with tougher nationalism-based regulatory frameworks.
- The EU may increasingly push back against the unilateralism displayed by the US and China.
- Climate change will challenge companies and countries equally, creating conflicts between controlling emissions and bottomlines.
The Shia world may rise creating greater regional instability.
- Turkey may be unravelling, which could be dangerous to others in the region. Latin American volatility and instability would be another source of risk.
Sources: the Hindu.