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Top Risks 2020

Topics Covered: Important aspects of governance, transparency and accountability.

Top Risks 2020

What to study?

For Prelims: Key findings.

For Mains: Concerns expressed, challenges and ways to address them.

Context: Eurasia Group has released its report titled “Top Risks 2020”.

The Eurasia Group is one of US’ most influential risk assessment companies.

 Key findings:

Observations made on India:

  1. India is one of the world’s top geopolitical risks for 2020. It is the 5th highest geopolitical risk.
  2. PM Narendra Modi has spent much of his second term promoting controversial social policies at the expense of an economic agenda.
  3. The impacts will be felt in 2020, with intensified communal and sectarian instability, as well as foreign policy and economic setbacks.
  4. Modi has less room to manoeuvre on structural reforms, just as the economy is starting to sputter, with quarterly growth falling to a six-year low of 4.5% and forward-looking indicators looking softer still.
  5. A weakened economy will in turn feed further economic nationalism and protectionism, weighing on India’s troubled course in 2020.

Global scenario:

  1. US and its broken domestic politics is the “top” global geopolitical risk of this year.
  2. There were risks of a US election that many will view as illegitimate, uncertainty in its aftermath, and a foreign policy environment made less stable by the resulting vacuum. Besides, a broken impeachment mechanism, questions of electoral illegitimacy, and a series of court challenges will make this the most volatile year of politics the US has experienced in generations.
  3. The top risks include the technological “decoupling” between the US and China and the challenges that it poses to the world besides the enduring US-China tensions.
  4. This will lead to “more explicit clash over security, influence and values.”
  5. Countries and governments will push back more and more against multinational corporations, with tougher nationalism-based regulatory frameworks.
  6. The EU may increasingly push back against the unilateralism displayed by the US and China.
  7. Climate change will challenge companies and countries equally, creating conflicts between controlling emissions and bottomlines.
    The Shia world may rise creating greater regional instability.
  8. Turkey may be unravelling, which could be dangerous to others in the region. Latin American volatility and instability would be another source of risk.

Sources: the Hindu.