RSTV: THE BIG PICTURE- NO WATER FOR PAKISTAN

RSTV: THE BIG PICTURE- NO WATER FOR PAKISTAN

Introduction:

            In a stern message to Pakistan, New Delhi has decided to stop the flow of its share of water to Pakistan from rivers under the Indus Waters Treaty. The announcement was made on 21 February by Union minister Nitin Gadkari after the attack generated series of strong reactions across the country. Similar demands or to say sentiments to stop the flow of India’s share of Indus water to Pakistan were echoed after the Uri terror attack in 2016. Now, the Indus Water Treaty is a water sharing mechanism between two countries that came into being in the year 1960. The system comprises of main Indus River and five other rivers that flowed in undivided India… Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas and Sutlej. The basin is mainly shared by India and Pakistan with a small share for China and Afghanistan.

Under the Indus Waters Treaty signed between India and Pakistan in 1960, all the waters of three rivers, namely Ravi, Sutlej and Beas… also termed as Eastern Rivers were allocated to India for exclusive use… while the waters of Western rivers – Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab were allocated to Pakistan.

Now, after announcing the stopping of water to flow its share to Pakistan the government has also reiterated that we would be diverting water from eastern rivers to Jammu and Kashmir and Punjab.

The Indus is one of Asia’s mightiest rivers. From its source in the northwestern foothills of the Himalayas, it flows through the Indian state of Jammu & Kashmir and along the length of Pakistan to the Arabian Sea. The river and its five tributaries together make up the Indus Basin, which spans four countries and supports 215m people.

Yet fast-growing populations and increasing demand for hydropower and irrigation in each country means the Indus is coming under intense pressure.

River sharing between India and Pakistan:

• The sharing of water of the six rivers– Indus, Chenab, Jhelum, Beas, Ravi and Sutlej– between India and Pakistan is governed by a treaty the two countries signed in 1960. The deal was brokered by the World Bank after nine years of negotiation.
• Under the treaty, India has control over water flowing in the eastern rivers– Beas, Ravi and Sutlej. Pakistan has control over the western rivers– Indus, Chenab and Jhelum.
• As per the treaty, the water commissioners of Pakistan and India are required to meet twice a year and arrange technical visits to projects’ sites and critical river head works. Both the sides share details of the water flow and the quantum of water being used under the treaty.
• The treaty sets out a mechanism for cooperation and information exchange between the two countries regarding their use of the rivers.
• Of the total 168 million acre-feet, India’s share of water from the three allotted rivers is 33 million acre-feet, which constitutes nearly 20 per cent. India uses nearly 93-94 per cent of its share under the Indus Waters Treaty. The rest of the water remains unutilised and goes to Pakistan

Indian Rights to be utilised fully without violating Indus Water Treaty, 1960:

• Indus Water Treaty is considered to be one of the most successful water-sharing endeavours in the world today. For 56 years, both India and Pakistan are peacefully sharing the water of Indus and its tributaries, thanks to The Indus Water Treaty (IWT).
• When India decided to exert much greater control over the waters of the Indus basin, while continuing to adhere to the provisions of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty that governs the sharing of these waters with Pakistan.
• A high-level task force was set up under the stewardship of the Principal Secretary to the Prime Minister to ensure that India makes full use of the waters it is entitled to under the Treaty.

The treaty:

• Other challenges are completely outside the scope of the treaty.
• First, global warming will raise the sea level and make Himalayan glaciers, the ultimate source of the Indus, melt ever faster. Dangerous flooding is expected to become more frequent and more severe.
• Climate change is also expected to affect monsoon patterns in South Asia, and could result in less rainfall for India and Pakistan. This could be disastrous as summer monsoon rainfall provides 90% of India’s total water supply. The IWT is silent on all this.
• Currently, there is no institutional framework or legal instrument for addressing the effects of climate change on water availability in the Indus Basin.
• India and Pakistan also share an important aquifer – essentially a vast pool of underground water covering an area of 2m hectares across both countries. This “groundwater” helps support the huge population in the Indus region, accounting for 48% of all water withdrawals in the basin.
• But far more water is being taken out each year than is replenished by rain and other recharge sources. One recent study said the Indus was the most overstressed major aquifer in the world, thanks to population growth and development pressures in both countries.
• Despite this, the 1960 treaty also does not have any clause to deal with transboundary aquifers, and there are no agreed rules for the allocation and management of shared groundwater.

China and Afghanistan

• As with most of Asia’s great rivers, the Indus ultimately begins on the Tibetan plateau, in Chinese territory.
• India currently has no treaty with upstream China on their shared rivers. How that relationship develops will determine India’s future water availability and in turn how India behaves towards downstream Pakistan.
• Similarly, Pakistan and Afghanistan have no water sharing agreement for the Kabul River, an important tributary of the Indus which supplies up to 17% of Pakistan’s total water. As Afghanistan strives to develop its hydropower, with the help of Indian finance, this could instigate a whole new conflict on the Indus itself.
• The authors of the Indus Water Treaty can’t be blamed for not anticipating climate change, huge population growth or modern hydropower issues. The treaty was drawn up in the 1950s, after all. The IWT does have a clause for “future cooperation” which allows the two countries to expand the treaty to address recent challenges like climate-induced water variability or groundwater sharing. But the historical trust deficit between the two countries has prevented meaningful dialogue.
• But it is clear that these new challenges require all countries in the basin to acknowledge their dependence on each other and discuss joint solutions. Expanding the water sharing agreement to include Afghanistan and China would be a start. Including these two countries, especially China, would also help to address the power asymmetry between India and Pakistan and pave the way for a more holistic sharing agreement over the Indus waters.

Conclusion:

• India currently has no treaty with upstream China on their shared rivers. How that relationship develops will determine India’s future water availability and in turn how India behaves towards downstream Pakistan.
• Similarly, Pakistan and Afghanistan have no water sharing agreement for the Kabul River, an important tributary of the Indus which supplies up to 17% of Pakistan’s total water.
• As Afghanistan strives to develop its hydropower, with the help of Indian finance, this could instigate a whole new conflict on the Indus itself.
• India has never used our rights on the western rivers. Under the Indus Water Treaty, we can make use of the waters of the western rivers for storage to an extent, and even for producing electricity, in the manner specified.
• But it is clear that these new challenges require all countries in the basin to acknowledge their dependence on each other and discuss joint solutions.
• Expanding the water sharing agreement to include Afghanistan and China would be a start. Including these two countries, especially China, would also help to address the power asymmetry between India and Pakistan and pave the way for a more holistic sharing agreement over the Indus waters.
• If we just do what we are entitled to under the Treaty, it would be enough to send jitters through Pakistan. It would be a strong signal without doing anything drastic.

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